10
Aug 2012
The best way to think about a poll, outside issues of sampling or
methodology, is as a snapshot in time. A well-crafted poll can give you a sense
of the state of the race--at the time the poll is taken. The impact of major
campaign events can be missed if the poll was conducted before they happened,
even if the results were reported during the event. Rasmussen and Gallup poll
daily using moving averages, enabling them to capture changes in the daily
horse-race of the campaign. Today's data from Gallup confirms that the
"cancer" ad attacking Romney has strongly backfired on Obama.
Gallup's latest results, polled between Tuesday and
Thursday, days dominated by the controversy over the "cancer" ad show
Obama's approval ratings moving down 3 points and his disapproval rating moving
up 3. 51% of voters now disapprove of Obama and only 43% approve. Romney's
support edged up 1. Gallup shows the race tied at 46%.
A six-point swing in
approval ratings is pretty significant in a moving average. Rasmussen
also showed Romney
gaining strength mid-week, moving into a 4 point lead over Obama. This is
significant, because they are the only two pollsters who were polling
throughout the controversy.
Three other polls were
released this week, all showing leads for Obama. The first, Reuters, was
conducted last Wednesday through Sunday, missing the entire controversy. The
Fox poll was conducted Saturday through Monday, also missing it. CNN was
conducted Tuesday and Wednesday, just as the controversy was unfolding. (Side
note: always beware polls conducted significantly over a weekend--very erratic
sampling.)
The Obama campaign is
basing most of its reelection on smearing Romney. Today's Gallup results, which
show significant weakening of Obama during the controversy, should light a path
for Romney. Fight back. The voters are watching.
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