GALLUP - CANCERGATE AD FLAP HURTING El Presidente

by MIKE FLYNN 10 Aug 2012 

The best way to think about a poll, outside issues of sampling or methodology, is as a snapshot in time. A well-crafted poll can give you a sense of the state of the race--at the time the poll is taken. The impact of major campaign events can be missed if the poll was conducted before they happened, even if the results were reported during the event. Rasmussen and Gallup poll daily using moving averages, enabling them to capture changes in the daily horse-race of the campaign. Today's data from Gallup confirms that the "cancer" ad attacking Romney has strongly backfired on Obama. 

Gallup's latest results, polled between Tuesday and Thursday, days dominated by the controversy over the "cancer" ad show Obama's approval ratings moving down 3 points and his disapproval rating moving up 3. 51% of voters now disapprove of Obama and only 43% approve. Romney's support edged up 1. Gallup shows the race tied at 46%. 

A six-point swing in approval ratings is pretty significant in a moving average. Rasmussen also showed Romney gaining strength mid-week, moving into a 4 point lead over Obama. This is significant, because they are the only two pollsters who were polling throughout the controversy. 

Three other polls were released this week, all showing leads for Obama. The first, Reuters, was conducted last Wednesday through Sunday, missing the entire controversy. The Fox poll was conducted Saturday through Monday, also missing it. CNN was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday, just as the controversy was unfolding. (Side note: always beware polls conducted significantly over a weekend--very erratic sampling.) 

The Obama campaign is basing most of its reelection on smearing Romney. Today's Gallup results, which show significant weakening of Obama during the controversy, should light a path for Romney. Fight back. The voters are watching. 

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/08/10/cancergate-ad-flap-hurting-obama

El Presidente not doing well in major swing state polls

Can you believe this?  Is the world coming to the end?  How about them Mayans?

GALLUP: OBAMA APPROVAL BELOW FIFTY IN ALL MAJOR SWING STATES

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by JOHN NOLTE 1 Aug 2012, 7:27 AM PDT  POST A COMMENT

Today, Gallup released new job approvals polls taken in all fifty states with the headline: "Thirteen States and D.C. Give Obama Majority Approval."

You can also read that as "Obama Below Majority Approval In 37 States".

The problem for Obama is that his approval numbers are only above 50% in states we already know he's going to win in November. But in the swing states he must take in order to win the opportunity to finish the job of destroying our country, the President is well below 50.

Iowa, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania -- 46%.

Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina -- 45%

Ohio -- 44%.

Colorado, New Hampshire -- 43%.

Gallup explains how dire these numbers are for Obama:          

The 50% approval mark is significant because post-World War II incumbent presidents who have been above 50% job approval on Election Day were easily re-elected. Presidents with approval ratings below 50% have more uncertain re-election prospects. Historically, two presidents below 50% in their final approval rating before the election -- George W. Bush and Harry Truman -- won, and three, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush, lost.

That's a somewhat simplistic way to look at it. On election day, according to Real Clear Politics, George W. Bush's approval rating was 49.7%.  Today, Obama's approval rating is 47.4%, and chances are an incumbent is lucky if they haul in more than a single point over his approval rating on election day.

We also have an electoral college and in the states Obama must win, he'll have a lot of ground to gain if he's going to get anywhere close to 50.

Moreover, things improved for Bush in Iraq as election day neared -- and Iraq was the major issue of that cycle. This year the major issue is the economy and no one believes that's going to improve. In fact, many believe it's going to get worse.

Finally,  there's the fact that Obama is in this much trouble after already firing his Big Guns on Bain and Romney's taxes. Romney, however, has yet to fire back. After a withering primary and the legal inability to spend the money he's raised until the convention, Romney has been outspent and fighting with one hand tied behind his back.

That all changes in a few weeks.

In better news, this latest round of Gallup polls contradict the latest round of juiced media-generated polls…

The CBS/NYT model has Democrats a +9 in Florida when in 2008 they were only a +3 and an even split in the 2010 midterms.  Ohio’s sample has exactly the split in 2008 (D+8), which is nine points better than Democrats did in the midterms.  Pennsylvania’s numbers (D+6) come closest to a rational predictive model, somewhere between 2008′s D+7 and 2010′s D+3, but still looking mighty optimistic for Democratic turnout.

…so it's pretty safe to say that Obama is the one in trouble, not Romney.

These job approval numbers also tell us why Obama and his Media Palace Guards are working so hard to disqualify Romney. It's the only way Obama can win. America obviously wants to fire this failed president, but won’t if the alternative isn't acceptable -- and the only way the media can turn Romney into something unacceptable is to toxify him -- which is all the corrupt media's been doing for weeks now.

Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/08/01/Gallup-Obama-Job-Approval-50-States

Gun Control clowncars seem to be making little headway - Is this a good thing?

AP: RENEWED CALLS FOR STRICTER GUN LAWS GETTING ‘LITTLE SUPPORT’

• Posted on July 21, 2012 at 8:32pm by  Erica Ritz
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(Photo: AP)

(The Blaze/AP) — Gun control advocates sputter at their own impotence. The National Rifle Association is politically ascendant. And Barack Obama’s White House is reportedly vowing to safeguard the Second Amendment in its first official response to the deaths of at least 12 people in a mass shooting at a new Batman movie screening in suburban Denver.

Once, every highly publicized outbreak of gun violence produced strong calls from Democrats and a few Republicans for tougher controls on firearms.

Now those pleas are muted, a political paradox that’s grown more pronounced in an era scarred by Columbine, Virginia Tech, the wounding of a congresswoman and now the shooting in a suburban movie theater where carnage is expected on-screen only.

“We don’t want sympathy. We want action,” Dan Gross, president of the Brady campaign said Friday as President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney mourned the dead.

Ed Rendell, the former Democratic governor of Pennsylvania, was more emphatic than many in the early hours after the shooting. “Everyone is scared of the NRA,” he said on MSNBC. “Number one, there are some things worth losing for in politics and to be able to prevent carnage like this is worth losing for.”

Yet it’s been more than a decade since gun control advocates had a realistic hope of getting the type of legislation they seek, despite predictions that each shocking outburst of violence would lead to action.

According to a Gallup poll in 1990, 78 percent of those surveyed said laws covering the sale of firearms should be stricter, while 19 percent said they should remain the same or be loosened.

By the fall of 2004 support for tougher laws had dropped to 54 percent. In last year’s sounding, 43 percent said they should be stricter, and 55 percent said they should stay the same or be made more lenient.

In terms of electoral politics, Harry Wilson, a Roanoke College professor and author of a book on gun politics, said violent crime has been declining in recent years and, “It becomes increasingly difficult to make the argument that we need stricter gun control laws.”

Additionally, he said in some regions, gun control “can be a winning issue for Democrats. But nationally, it’s a loser … and they have figured that out.“ Attempts to emphasize the issue will ”really motivate the opposition. And in a political campaign, nobody wants to do that,” he said.

But more than that, Americans have seemingly seen that gun control laws aren’t always effective.

Purdue student and Young America’s Foundation Intern Scholar Hillary Cherry asks: “How will stricter gun laws bring an end to criminals having guns, when the laws against murder have not been able to stop them from killing innocent people?”

The CNS News article continues:

Currently in Aurora, Colorado, where the shooting took place, it is already unlawful to carry a concealed “dangerous weapon,” discharge firearms, unless by law enforcement on duty or on shooting range, and have loaded firearm in motor vehicle.

Yet these laws were unable to stop James Holmes.

Crime rates alone of cities such as Chicago and Washington D.C. prove that gun bans only increase crime. The D.C. police response rate is eight minutes; most crimes are done in less than one. Gun bans create a trouble-free world for criminals considering no one can defend themselves. If I were ever to face a situation like this, I would want to be prepared.

I cannot help but think, if one person in that audience was carrying a gun with them, that person could have saved lives. Unfortunately – despite what some of the Left have said – this tragedy is an example of the importance of our Second Amendment Rights.

In the wake of the Colorado shooting, both Republicans and Democrats have already begun using the tragedy to advance their respective ideologies.  In this case, it seems like the “gun control” crowd isn’t making much progress.

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AP Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and AP writer Jack Gillum contributed to this report.

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/ap-calls-for-stricter-gun-laws-getting-little-support-in-wake-of-colo-shooting/