Gallup Releases Bombshell Survey

by MIKE FLYNN 26 Oct 2012 157POST A COMMENT

This morning, Gallup released a bombshell survey of likely voters this November. It wasn't a horse race poll, i.e. which candidate is ahead, but rather a look at the underlying demographics that will make up the electorate this November. They slap the survey with a very misleading headline, "2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008." While this is true in many respects, it obscures one very big difference. For the first time in a presidential election, more Republicans will vote than Democrats. 

In 2008, 54% of likely voters identified as Democrat or lean Democrat. 42% of likely voters identified as GOP or lean GOP. In other words, the electorate, including independents who lean towards a particular party, was D+12. This year, however, the Democrat advantage has disappeared. 49% of likely voters today identify as GOP or lean GOP. Just 46% of likely voters are or lean towards the Democrats. This is a 15-point swing towards the GOP from 2008 to an outright +3 advantage for the GOP. By comparison, in 2004, when Bush won reelection, the electorate was evenly split, with each party getting support from 48% of likely voters. 

If these numbers are within even a few points of what this survey suggests, then Romney will win decisively and the GOP will pick up the Senate. We are likely standing on the edge of another GOP wave election. 

Keep in mind, the Gallup survey suggests that voter turnout among Obama's biggest supporters, i.e. minorities and young voters, will generally match 2008 levels. Obama's problem is that, relatively speaking, there just aren't that many of these voters. Voters under 30 will make up 13% of the electorate, one point below '08 and even with '04. Minorities will make up 20%, up 5 from '04 and only up 1 point from '08. 

Obama's chief problem is that everyone else in the electorate has become much more Republican. 

Most of the media's polls anticipate the 2012 electorate looking either as Democrat as 2008 or even more Democrat. Obama's slim lead in state polls rests on the foundation of a massive Democrat turnout advantage. This Gallup survey, though, puts that lie to rest. If the electorate is actually even or R+ anything, Romney wins in a blowout. 

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http://nation.foxnews.com/polls/2012/10/26/gallup-releases-bombshell-survey

SURPRISE: The caliph خليفة UP 1 IN D+6 ABC POLL

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by MIKE FLYNN 11 Sep 2012 68 POST A COMMENT

The media should just go ahead and start filing in-kind contributions to the Obama campaign with the FEC. Its polls now are nothing but an attempt to create the false narrative that Obama is pulling away in the presidential race. But, even when they game the polls, it's becoming a tough story to sell. Today's Washington Post/ABC poll finds Obama leading Romney by 1 point among Likely Voters (LV). But, they have to use a D+6 sample to get there.

Today's ABC poll uses a sample that is (D/R/I) 33/27/36. This assumes that the electorate voting in November will be almost the same as the one that voted in 2008, when Democrats had a +7 advantage. Repeat after me: This is not going to happen. 

In 2008, Obama was the Chauncey Gardner of politics. With a virtually non-existent record but great rhetorical skills, Obama was the repository for voters' idealistic visions of politicians. His election saw record turnout among young voters, hispanics and African-Americans. He took votes in deeply red areas of the country, where voters were fatigued by eight years of President Bush and reeling from the immediate after effects of the financial crisis. It was a perfect storm for Democrats, who scored their highest turnout in decades. 

This year, with a dismal economy, massive debt and a junkyard of broken promises, Obama will not be able to assemble the same level of turnout. Yet, the media pretends that this election will be just like 2008, even though virtually every poll shows greater enthusiasm among GOP voters. Moreover, today's ABC poll finds Romney winning independents by 11 points, a margin similar to virtually every other poll. 

Only by oversampling Democrats can ABC produce a poll with Obama in the lead. If the poll tried to match a more realistic scenario of the partisan composition of the electorate, Romney would have a clear lead. Probably in just about every poll.

The polls aren't really about accurately reflecting the state of the race. They are about creating a narrative designed to depress GOP turnout. For evidence of that, look no further than Politico, who ignored the LV result and only reported the Registered Voter match-up, which was more favorable to Obama. No serious objective media outlet would ignore a LV number, which everyone in Christendom understands is more accurate. But, then, Politicoisn't a serious, objective media outlet. 

It is frustrating to see the media delude itself about where Obama stands in the polls. Juicing the polls to paint a picture you want to see is, I guess, reassuring today. But, they will wake up with one hell of a hangover on November 7th.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/09/11/surprise-obama-up-1-in-d-6-abc-poll

WINNING: TOP SENATE bob kerrey DEM RECRUIT SLAMS obamacare

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by MIKE FLYNN 7 Sep 2012 151 POST A COMMENT

When Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson cut his "Cornhusker Kickback" deal and cast the deciding vote on ObamaCare, his political career was finished. While he initially made a pretense of possibly running for reelection, he eventually bowed to reality and announced his retirement. Which put Democrats in something of a bind. They don't exactly have a deep bench in the state. So, they did what you'd expect of a party bereft of new ideas, they recruited former Sen. Bob Kerrey to run for his old Senate seat. 

Kerrey faces on uphill battle, despite his long and successful political career in the state. He served one-term as Governor and two as Senator. But, he left office over ten years ago and has resided in New York City ever since. And, Nebraska has become increasingly hostile to the Democrat party. His only hope is to distance himself from the national party. Which he is quickly trying to do:

Democratic Senate candidate Bob Kerrey said Thursday that he hates the employer mandate in the Affordable Care Act and that his own businesses might drop employee insurance and pay the federal fine for doing so if the mandate goes into effect in 2014.

Kerrey said wealthy Americans pay their fair share in taxes. And he said President Barack Obama made a big mistake by not following the recommendations of his own bipartisan budget deficit commission.

He went beyond just a general opposition to ObamaCare, however. He was very specific, and knowledgable, about one of the law's chief failings:

“I hate the employer mandate,” Kerrey said. “I think it’s going to have a counterproductive impact. We don’t have any (insured employee) that costs us less than $7,000 (a year), and the fine’s $2,000. We’ll dump ’em off. We won’t call it dumping, we’ll say ... ‘Go get it from the exchange.’”

He said the employer mandate “will accelerate an already breaking-down employer-based system.” That portion of the law should be repealed, he said.

Of course, this is a feature, not a bug of ObamaCare. Getting more employees out of the private health insurance market and into highly-regulated government-run health insurance exchanges is an important step towards a single payer health care system. 

That Kerrey has to distance himself so far away from the Democrats' signature achievement is further evidence that the Democrat party is no longer a national party. It is increasingly a regional party, clustered on the coasts, and big urban areas. 

There was a time Democrats could compete just about everywhere across the country. In many places that is becoming more rare and usually requires a flawed GOP candidate or a Dem campaign that tacts far away from the party. 

This process has been accelerated since Obama and the progressive-left took over the party. While the media fixates on the occasional Republican moderate who feels out of touch with the GOP, the list of Democrats alienated by their national party is far longer. Bob Kerrey is just the latest Democrat to be left behind by his party. 

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/09/07/winning-top-senate-dem-recruit-slams-obamacare

GALLUP - CANCERGATE AD FLAP HURTING El Presidente

by MIKE FLYNN 10 Aug 2012 

The best way to think about a poll, outside issues of sampling or methodology, is as a snapshot in time. A well-crafted poll can give you a sense of the state of the race--at the time the poll is taken. The impact of major campaign events can be missed if the poll was conducted before they happened, even if the results were reported during the event. Rasmussen and Gallup poll daily using moving averages, enabling them to capture changes in the daily horse-race of the campaign. Today's data from Gallup confirms that the "cancer" ad attacking Romney has strongly backfired on Obama. 

Gallup's latest results, polled between Tuesday and Thursday, days dominated by the controversy over the "cancer" ad show Obama's approval ratings moving down 3 points and his disapproval rating moving up 3. 51% of voters now disapprove of Obama and only 43% approve. Romney's support edged up 1. Gallup shows the race tied at 46%. 

A six-point swing in approval ratings is pretty significant in a moving average. Rasmussen also showed Romney gaining strength mid-week, moving into a 4 point lead over Obama. This is significant, because they are the only two pollsters who were polling throughout the controversy. 

Three other polls were released this week, all showing leads for Obama. The first, Reuters, was conducted last Wednesday through Sunday, missing the entire controversy. The Fox poll was conducted Saturday through Monday, also missing it. CNN was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday, just as the controversy was unfolding. (Side note: always beware polls conducted significantly over a weekend--very erratic sampling.) 

The Obama campaign is basing most of its reelection on smearing Romney. Today's Gallup results, which show significant weakening of Obama during the controversy, should light a path for Romney. Fight back. The voters are watching. 

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/08/10/cancergate-ad-flap-hurting-obama