IN THE LONG RUN, IS THE GOP DEAD?
By: Patrick J. Buchanan
7/27/2012 05:10 AM
7/27/2012 05:10 AM
Since 1928, only Dwight Eisenhower and George W.
Bush have won the presidency while capturing both houses of Congress for the
GOP.
In his 49-state landslide, Richard Nixon failed
to take either House. In his two landslides, Ronald Reagan won back only the
Senate. Yet Mitt Romney is even money to pull off the hat trick.
With this hopeful prospect, why the near despair
among so many Republicans about the long term?
In his New York Times report, “In California,
GOP Fights Steep Decline,” Adam Nagourney delves into the reasons.
In the Golden Land, a state Nixon carried all
five times he was on a national ticket and Reagan carried by landslides all
four times he ran, the GOP does not hold a single statewide office. It gained
not a single House seat in the 2010 landslide. Party registration has fallen to
30 percent of the California electorate and is steadily sinking.
Why? It is said that California Republicans are
too out of touch, too socially conservative on issues like right-to-life and
gay rights. “When you look at the population growth,” says GOP consultant Steve
Schmidt, “the actual party is shrinking. It’s becoming more white. It’s
becoming older.”
Race, age and ethnicity are at the heart of the
problem. And they portend not only the party’s death in California, but perhaps
its destiny in the rest of America.
Consider. Almost 90 percent of all Republican
voters in presidential elections are white. Almost 90 percent are Christians.
But whites fell to 74 percent of the electorate in 2008 and were only 64
percent of the population. Christians are down to 75 percent of the population
from 85 in 1990. The falloff continues and is greatest among the young.
Consider ethnicity. Hispanics were 15 percent of
the U.S. population in 2008 and 7.4 percent of the electorate. Both percentages
will inexorably rise.
Yet in their best years, like 2004, Republicans
lose the Hispanic vote 3-to-2. In bad years, like 2008, they lose it 2-to-1.
Whites are already a minority in California, and Hispanics will eventually
become the majority.
Say goodbye to the Golden Land.
Asian-Americans voted 3-to-2 for Obama, black
Americans 24-to-1. The Asian population in California and the nation is growing
rapidly. The black population, 13 percent of the nation, is growing steadily.
Whites, already a minority in our two most
populous states, will be less than half the U.S. population by 2041 and a
minority in 10 states by 2020.
Consider now the Electoral College picture.
Of the seven mega-states, California, New York
and Illinois appear lost to the GOP. Pennsylvania has not gone Republican since
1988. Ohio and Florida, both crucial, are now swing states. Whites have become
a minority in Texas. When Texas goes, America goes.
This year could be the last hurrah.
The GOP must work harder to win Hispanic votes,
we are told. But consider the home economics and self-interest of Hispanics.
Half of all U.S. wage-earners pay no income tax.
Yet that half and their families receive free education K-12, Medicaid, rent
supplements, food stamps, earned income tax credits, Pell grants, welfare
payments, unemployment checks and other benefits.
Why should poor, working- and middle-class
Hispanics, the vast majority, vote for a party that will reduce taxes they
don’t pay, but cut the benefits they do receive?
The majority of Latinos, African-Americans,
immigrants and young people 18 to 25 pay no income taxes yet enjoy a panoply of
government benefits. Does not self-interest dictate a vote for the party that
will let them keep what they have and perhaps give them more, rather than the
party that will pare back what they now receive?
What are the historic blunders of the Grand Old
Party that may yet appear on the autopsy report as probable causes of death?
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